The Economic Perspective 6/20/2025

The Latest Trending Economic, Environmental and Infrastructure News Curated for You by The Balmoral Group

The Balmoral Group provides practical, professional and precise Economics, Data Analytics, and Engineering Consulting services and is part of a globally integrated team.

Happy Friday!

And good afternoon! The Florida Legislature has recently concluded drafting the Florida budget. While the budget has yet to be signed by the Governor, there are increases and decreases to different sources of land conservation funding. Several key areas that saw some funding allocations peeled back included the allocations to Florida Forever which is earmarked for $18 million compared to the previously promised $100 million and $400 million was rescinded from the Seminole Gaming Compact that originally was going to land conservation and management. Additionally, funding was not provided for the Florida Communities Trust and the Florida Recreational Development Assistance Program. However, $250 million was allocated to the Rural and Family Lands Protection Program, but this will not add land to the public's inventory of parks and wildlife management areas. More information can be read here, here, and here.

Additionally, our interns curated articles this week on US construction costs, reforestation's effect as a carbon sink, and DOI reports on oil and gas findings. This week's data visualization covers the Surface Water and Ocean Topography mission focused on herbaceous wetland habitats. 

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Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

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US Construction Costs Jumped Again in May 

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released a Producer Price Index (PPI) that indicates an increase in non-residential construction material and service costs. This cost jump can be attributed to steel mill price hikes according to the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), seeing that they rose 7.1% month-over month. Additionally, commodities like iron and steel rose 3.2%, and hot rolled steel bars rose 1.4%. Read more about May's construction cost increase and PPI here. 

Study Reports Everglades Value to South Florida Economy

The Everglades Foundation estimated that the Florida Everglades contribute $31.5 billion to different sectors of the South Florida Economy including tourism and real estate. Additionally, previous studies have revealed that programs that protect and restore the Everglades have a 4 to 1 return on investment, highlighting the importance that these lands have to Floridians. Halting the restoration efforts that are in place in the Everglades could lead to issues like habitat loss due to algal blooms, threatening the real estate industry and the various ecological services provided by this land. Read more here, and view the Everglades Foundation report here.

Trees Could Offset Fossil Fuels

Planting trees has plenty of benefits, however, one of benefits carbon offsetting could play a big role for Earth's atmosphere. While planting trees itself would'nt eliminate all carbon, it could greatly reduce it. In a study done by researchers, in order to eliminate all carbon emitted from the 200 largest holders of fossil fuels reserves, enough trees to cover the whole land masses of North and Central America would have to be planted. Additionally, it would cost 10.08 trillion which is larger than the estimation of the entire fossil fuels industry. Read more here.

NABE Panelists Forecast Inflation and Slowed Economic Growth 

The National Association of Business Economics (NABE) released their June 2025 Outlook Survey Results this week. 42 forecasting professionals were surveyed from May 27th through June 2nd, 2025 and asked about their expectations for the economy. Median forecasts for inflation-adjusted GDP growth are now 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, which is down from 1.9% for both years reported in pre-April surveys. The consumer price index (CPI) is projected to increase by 3.4% in Q4 of 2025 compared to Q4 of 2024, down from 3.7% projected in the April survey. Respondents expect CPI to moderate to 2.6% in Q4 of 2026. 75% of respondents expect tariffs to increase PCE inflation by less than a percentage point, while 18% believe it will be at least 1%. 55% of panelists believe the next U.S. recession will not begin until 2027 or later, while 15% believe it will begin by Q3 (10%) or Q4 (5%) of 2025. 56% of panelists believe the odds of a recession will occur in the next 12 months are between 20 and 40%. One third believe the odds are between 40% and 60%. Read more here.

Effects of the US Construction Industry’s Knowledge Gap

The safety and profitability of the United States’ construction industry is being threatened by labor shortages and the loss of skilled, and experienced workers. Currently, around 1/5th of workers in the industry are over the age of 55 and nearing retirement, and younger workers are not replacing them fast enough and the knowledge transfer methods that are currently in place are not effective. This could lead to increased rework and cost overturns, slowed innovation, and safety challenges. Read more of Forbes’s article here.

U.S. DOI Reports New Oil and Gas Findings 

A recent USGS survey conducted by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) reveals a significant increase of potential oil and gas beneath U.S. public lands compared to their previous estimates. In their report, the DOI estimated that there are around 29.4 billion barrels of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of gas. Previously, the USGS stated that there were approximately 7.86 billion barrels of oil and 201 trillion cubic feet of gas. This increase in their estimates is attributed to the change in energy production methodologies. Now, unconventional resources like tight oil, tight gas, oil shale, coal-bed gas, and others are considered for USGS assessments. Read more here.  

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Data Visualization of the Week

SWOT Mission’s Great Performance in Measuring Earth’s Surface Waters

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission focused on measuring surface water levels in herbaceous wetland habitats, particularly the Florida Everglades. SWOT measurements were compared with data produced by ground-based gauges in wetlands. The correlation between gauge and SWOT measurements was extremely high, and is illustrated in panel "b". This data visualization shows the extent of the area of interest (a), and the SWOT WSE error versus number of pixels averaged (c). Read more here.