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The Economic Perspective 06/14/2024

The Latest Trending Economic, Environmental and Infrastructure News Curated for You by The Balmoral Group

The Balmoral Group provides practical, professional and precise Economics, Data Analytics, and Engineering Consulting services and is part of a globally integrated team.

Happy Friday! 

Welcome back to this week's Economic Perspective!  One of the big stories in Florida this week has been the rain... an atmosphere full of water has led to epic rainfall and flooding in parts of south Florida.  Some of you might recall that in April 2023, a 1000-year rain dropped around 20 inches of rain on parts of Ft. Lauderdale.  Again just this week in June 2024 there have been reports of two-day rain totals near 20 inches.  This week's storms were forecasted quite accurately, but the flooding has still been extensive.

Our team has been preparing to host a workshop in partnership with the Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve to help improve restoration collaboration in the Apalachicola region.  We'll follow-up here to fill you in on what we learned and how we're helping advance restoration collaboration for a healthier bay and watersheds around Apalachicola.

This week we bring stories on renewable energy, Carbon trading, AI in weather forecasting and more. We hope you enjoy the read and let us know what you think! Please feel free to forward this to anyone you think would be interested. If you’d like to view previous editions please click here, or to subscribe please click here!

Thank you and have a great weekend!


Impacts of Canada's Carbon Pricing

This week, the Canadian government released the data they modeled on the impacts carbon pricing could have on the country’s GDP and greenhouse gas emissions between 2022 and 2030. The pricing has two components: one related to fuel purchases and the other is an output-based pricing system. The current price is $80 per ton and will increase by $15 annually until 2030. The Environment and Climate Change Canada analysis shows that the emissions would be 78 million tons (11%) lower and GDP would be 1% lower with carbon pricing by 2030. You can access the data here.

Climate Change Superfund of NY

The New York State Assembly recently passed the Climate Change Superfund Act, which creates a 25-year fund for climate change mitigation projects. Under this legislation, fossil fuel companies would be required to collectively pay $3 billion annually into the fund, totaling $75 billion after 25 years. Other states considering similar superfund bills include California, Massachusetts, and Maryland. Read more from ENR.

NOAA Funding for Fish Passages

Every year has become increasingly challenging for millions of fish migrating to spawning and rearing habitats to reproduce. Last year, NOAA (funded under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act) awarded nearly $105 million to increase fish passage for 36 projects. This year, NOAA has more than doubled the amount awarded, recommending that 46 fish passage projects be provided with funds to reopen migratory pathways, restore access to healthy habitat for fish, and build tribal capacity to develop and implement fish passage projects. The goal of these projects: help recover endangered migratory fish and support sustainable fisheries, with nearly half of the projects funded led by tribes and tribal organizations.  NOAA

Next Up in AI-Modeled Weather Forecasting

Aurora, Microsoft’s artificial intelligence (AI) model has the ability to forecast weather and air pollution for the entire world, all in less than a minute. Weather forecasting is benefitting from the global boom and usage of AI in today’s world as tech giants such as Google, Nvidia, and more are releasing weather-forecasting models. However, Aurora’s capability to predict the amounts of six major pollutants in global air pollution is a first in the field, marking this a “big step in a journey of atmospheric chemistry and machine learning” said by Matthew Chantry, a machine-learning researcher at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Read more about Aurora’s groundbreaking development and the implications to come here.

AI Could Trigger Economic Downturn

The IMF predicts that advanced economies could see an estimated 30% of job losses being replaced by AI. That figure is estimated at 20% for emerging economies and 18% for low-income countries. According to the IMF First Managing Director, Gita Gopinath, she predicts that economic downturns will have widespread layoffs, and more of the workforce could could be replaceable with artificial intelligence systems. She further predicts that a stock market crash could be much worse if it happened suddenly, since AI powered algorithmic systems already exist in the financial markets. The AI systems leading investment decisions could also face challenges responding to a downturn characterized by unfamiliar patterns. Read more here.

12th Meeting of the Greening Government Initiative

This week, representatives of 55 countries participated in the 12th meeting of the Greening Government Initiative (GGI) to discuss strategies for reducing their countries’ environmental impacts associated with information communication and technology practices. The GGI is an initiative that was started by the Governments of U.S. and Canada in April 2021 to exchange information, promote innovation, and share best practices to support green national government operations and meet Paris Agreement commitments. Their next meeting is scheduled for September 2024 and will focus on Net-Zero Roadmaps for government operations. Read more here.

Green Hydrogen as a Potential Solution for the Renewables Grid

A new study by a research team from the Korea Institute of Energy Research has highlighted the efficacy of a green hydrogen system in stabilizing renewable energy grids. Green hydrogen, produced via water electrolysis using renewable energy, is showcased as a sustainable solution.  The research team originally developed a model based on data collected from Jeju Island, where solar and wind power generation account for 20% of the total power generation, in order to optimize the green hydrogen system and emphasize its economic feasibility and stability. The study underscores the importance of green hydrogen in mitigating power grid instability and advocates tailored strategies for its implementation, aiding policymakers and industries in decision-making for renewable energy transitions. Read more here.

Data Visualization of the Week

Global Carbon Markets

Related to our opening story on Canada's Carbon markets, there's a data access tool from World Bank that serves ups detailed information about C pricing instruments and compliance and prices all over the world.  Check it out here.



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