Calm Sea

Martin County Vulnerability Assessment: Sea-Level Rise and Economic Impacts

County: Martin County, Florida
Owner: Erin Deady LLC

The Balmoral Group was part of consultant team working for “Resilient Martin” to deliver a vulnerability assessment to understand the impacts of projected Sea Level Rise (SLR) scenarios on local economic activity. The Balmoral Group prepared a report on risks to economic drivers resulting from sea level rise.

EXPERTISE

  • Alternative futures scenario analysis for employment and revenues

  • Spatial analytics: workplaces, industry sector-level impacts

  • Economic impact assessment

  • Data visualization

  • Policy recommendations

Employment, wages, and revenues were calculated to identify economic drivers at risk due to inundation from SLR at 2040, 2070, and 2100.The significant increase in economic vulnerability from the 2040 to 2070 scenarios ($20 Million in at-risk revenues to potentially $100 Million) represents a conservative estimate of the economic risks from delayed adaptation actions. Analysis found an order of magnitude difference in total wage vulnerability between two of the scenarios, highlighting the importance of early and ongoing adaptation actions to prepare for a nonlinear increase in vulnerability.

Outreach to County staff and external stakeholders was delivered by the team through online meetings, recorded presentations, and a web-based data dashboard (https://datavisual.balmoralgroup.us/MartinBusinessVulnerabilitySLR).

 

Adaptation actions are expected to reduce the vulnerability of existing jobs and revenues and will make Martin County a more attractive place to live and work; retaining existing businesses and attracting new ventures.